The Federal Reserve's "megaphone" sent a key signal before the decision: it has become a consensus to cut interest rates this year, but it will still "stand still" this week, and the internal game is fierce on the prospect of a rate cut in September. It is rare for decision-makers to split into three camps. Click to view...
Meeting notes show three camps within the Fed. Some officials support a rate cut this month, most policymakers worry about inflationary pressures from tariffs and call for patience, while others see no need to cut rates this year. Click to view...
Nick Timiraos, the Fed's megaphone, said the Fed meeting notes revealed something we already knew, with officials divided into three main camps [on the path of interest rates]: 1. Cut interest rates during the year but exclude July (mainstream camp); 2. Stay put throughout the year; 3. Advocate immediate action at the next meeting (the minutes show only "minority" support, implying Fed governors Waller and Bowman). The meeting notes that "several participants said that the current federal funds ...